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Mortgage Rates Aren’t Just About the Fed — Here’s What You Really Need to Know

Mortgage rates held steady this week—but not for the reasons you think. Here’s why working with a loan officer beats doing your own research when timing the market.
Jun 20, 2025

When it comes to mortgage rates, most people assume they rise or fall based on whatever the Federal Reserve is doing.

But here’s the truth: the Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates—and relying on headlines or social media to “time the market” could cost you.

Let’s break down what actually happened this week—and what it means for you as a homebuyer.

Mortgage Rates Held Steady—But Not Because of the Fed

This past Thursday was a federal holiday, which means the bond market (the real driver of mortgage rates) was closed. But even so, mortgage rates barely moved from Wednesday’s levels—and that’s actually good news.

Over the past 3 business days, rates have fallen slightly—by about 0.05%, according to Mortgage News Daily.

The average 30-year fixed rate now sits around 6.86%, one of the lowest points since early April.

So yes, the market stayed calm. But no, it had nothing to do with this week’s Fed announcement.

Wait… Doesn’t the Fed Control Mortgage Rates?

This is where things get tricky—and why working with a mortgage expert really matters.

The Federal Reserve controls the federal funds rate, which influences short-term interest rates (like credit cards, car loans, and home equity lines). But mortgage rates? Those are driven by investor behavior in the bond market—specifically, mortgage-backed securities (MBS).

Mortgage rates go up or down based on:

  • Investor expectations about inflation
  • Economic outlook and job reports
  • Demand for MBS (mortgage bonds)
  • Global market reactions

Even if the Fed had cut rates this week—which wasn’t expected—mortgage rates might have gone up if investors thought it signaled long-term inflation or instability.

Why This Matters to You

You’re probably wondering: “When should I lock in my rate?”

Here’s the answer: There’s no universal perfect time—but there’s a perfect strategy for your situation. That’s why mortgage pros stay on top of data, bond movements, and rate trends daily—so you don’t have to guess.

When you work with a mortgage expert, you get:

  • Real-time guidance (not outdated Google searches)
  • A strategy tailored to your income, credit, and goals
  • Rate lock advice based on market signals—not headlines

Final Thought

Mortgage rates are influenced by dozens of moving parts—not just the Fed. And timing your loan based on headlines or internet myths could leave money on the table.

Work with someone who tracks this market for a living—because small rate changes can mean big savings.

Let’s talk about your options and whether now is the time to make your move.

Source: Mortgage News Daily

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